Indian equity markets are set to open flat to marginally higher on Monday, October 12, as investors brace for two heavyweight events due later in the day — the release of September consumer price inflation data and HCL Technologies’ second-quarter results. GIFT Nifty futures traded around the 22,624–22,646 band in early morning trade, signalling a cautious start after Friday’s sharp rebound.
The benchmark Nifty 50 closed Friday’s session at 22,520.45, up 1.3 per cent, while the BSE Sensex settled at 72,472.33, gaining 1.23 per cent. The rally snapped an eight-week losing streak that Reuters has described as the longest weekly losing run for Indian equities in 25 years — a grim milestone that underlines just how battered sentiment has been through the quarter.
The day’s first real test arrives after the market closes. India’s September CPI inflation data is scheduled for release at 5:30 PM IST, and it will be the first major domestic macro print since the Reserve Bank of India’s 25-basis-point rate hike and its shift in stance from neutral to calibrated tightening. August CPI had come in at 4.82 per cent, with food prices up 5.95 per cent, and investors will be watching closely for any sign that price pressures are re-accelerating.
HCL Technologies will also announce its Q2 FY27 numbers after market hours on Monday, kicking off the large-cap IT earnings season. The key figure on investors’ minds is the company’s full-year guidance of 1–4 per cent constant-currency revenue growth, which analysts say will set the tone for the sector. Wipro reports on October 15, followed by HDFC Bank and Axis Bank on Saturday, October 17.
Global cues offered little by way of comfort. Brent crude traded near $101–103 per barrel, slipping about 1.6 per cent on expectations of a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire after US President Donald Trump said both sides had agreed to halt attacks on each other’s energy facilities. Prices nevertheless held above the $100 mark as lingering Middle East tensions kept the risk premium in place.
The Reserve Bank of India moved over the weekend to shore up the rupee, which has been hovering near record lows around Rs 96.73–96.76 per dollar. The central bank directed oil companies to route their dollar purchases away from the spot market and tightened hedging rules, while also announcing a Rs 25,000 crore open-market operation auction of government securities scheduled for October 13.
Foreign institutional money continued to drain out of Indian equities. Foreign portfolio investors sold for the 11th consecutive session, offloading shares worth Rs 3,568.90 crore on Friday and Rs 30,295 crore over the full week. Domestic institutional investors stepped in to absorb the supply, pumping in net purchases of Rs 30,310 crore through the week — a near-perfect offset that kept the indices afloat.
“The recent rebound after an eight-week losing streak is encouraging, but not sufficient to confirm a sustained recovery, and at this stage, it appears more like a relief rally,” said Pabitro Mukherjee, deputy vice president of research at Bajaj Broking. Analysts broadly agree that Friday’s bounce needs follow-through buying and a benign inflation print to graduate into a genuine trend reversal.
Several counters will also be in focus on the back of early Q2 numbers. Avenue Supermarts reported a 7.6 per cent year-on-year rise in September-quarter net profit to Rs 8.04 billion, while Poonawalla Fincorp posted a five-fold jump in consolidated net profit to Rs 3.75 billion. On the softer side, Mahindra & Mahindra’s September-quarter production fell 19.2 per cent year-on-year, and Can Fin Homes logged a 9.2 per cent rise in profit to Rs 2.75 billion.
